Betting Odds On Oscars
The 2021 Oscars is set to take place on April 25, 2021 as some sportsbooks are beginning to release early odds. In 2020, only Indiana and New Jersey allowed legal betting on the Academy Awards although there is hope more states legalize the market.
888sport, a legal US operator in the United States, also has betting shops set up overseas and they’re one of the first to open their numbers.
BetOnline and other Oscars betting websites have a litany of props out right now, setting the pricing for the major categories. One prop is betting on who will host the 2021 Oscars, but my focus here is going to be the early 2021 Oscars odds and predictions for major categories. With current odds of +500, Hanks remains the betting favorite to win the Best Actor award. This may change sometime between now and the award ceremony next year, though. Eddie Redmayne: +800 38-year-old Eddie Redmayne is no stranger to the Academy Awards.
Along with the well-known award show, 888sport is offering other entertainment markets which includes the Grammys, Emmys and various other special markets.
What Odds Are Offered For The Oscars?
Typically, most of the big categories will see odds offered at the Academy Awards. The most popular categories include Best Picture, Best Lead Actor and Best Lead Actress.
The other categories range from popular ones such as Best Supporting Actor/Actress and Best Director to the smaller-known categories such as Best Costume Design and Best Sound Mixing.
Listed below are odds per 888sport, which are always subject to change.
2021 Oscars Best Picture Odds
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2021 Oscars Best Leading Actor Odds
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2021 Oscars Best Leading Actress Odds
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Updated Mon., Feb. 8, 11:00 AM ET - Consensus Odds Provided by VI - Subject to Change
While betting on the Academy Awards or any award show is only legal in two states, these betting markets could be available any year in states with legal betting moving forward.
2021 Oscar Odds: Key Info & Categories
- Show Date: April 25, 2021
- Time/Network: TBD
There are currently no nominations for the 2021 Oscars, with legal sportsbooks only offering Best Picture odds. That will change as nominations are announced for various categories. Here are the categories that typically offer odds at the Oscars.
- Best Picture
- Best Director
- Best Lead Actor
- Best Lead Actress
- Best Supporting Actor
- Best Supporting Actress
- Best International Feature
- Best Original Screenplay
- Best Adapted Screenplay
- Best Documentary Feature
- Best Animated Feature
- Best Cinematography
- Best Production Design
- Best Film Editing
- Best Visual Effects
- Best Animated Short
- Best Documentary Short
- Best Live Action Short
- Best Costume Design
- Best Makeup & Hairstyle
- Best Original Score
- Best Original Song
- Best Sound Editing
- Best Sound Mixing
Be sure to continue checking back, as more odds for these categories are released.
Who Picks Oscars Winners?
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences picks the winners of each category for the Oscars. There are over 8,000 members that make up the organization, which comes from a variety of positions within the film industry.
The Academy is made up of 'branches'. There are specific branches, each branch having at least one category at the Oscars. The branches include:
- Actors/Actresses
- Writers
- Directors
- Producers
- Music
- Makeup
- Hairstyle
- Sound
- Editors
- Animation
- Short Films
- Visual Effects
- Costume Designers
- Documentary
- Production Designers
Each branch has at least one category, in which specific branch members nominate and vote on winners. Directors nominate and vote for directors, production designers nominate and vote for other production designers, etc...
Best Picture Oscars Voting
The Best Picture category is the only category that uses a different voting system to pick its winner. All the other categories, members get just one vote. With the Best Picture category, members rank the movies in order of preference.
This is because there are so many nominations for Best Picture now (up to nine in 2020), the Academy wanted to avoid a winner only receiving a possible 10% of votes. The system used for the Best Picture category is known as 'preferential voting'.
This system, according to Variety adds up all the No. 1 votes first. If those votes exceed 50% then the film wins, although this is apparently a very rare circumstance.
If a film that receives the most No. 1 votes is under 50%, then the counting goes to the most No. 2 votes until a film exceeds 50%. If no film has over 50% of the votes after counting all No. 1 and No. 2 votes, then the counting moves to the most No. 3 votes. This is repeated until a film goes over the 50% mark.
Betting Odds Oscars 2020
How to Bet on 2021 Oscars Odds
Betting Odds On Oscars Last Night
Betting on the Oscars is no different than a typical sports wager. You have your typical money-line for one favorite and multiple underdogs. This betting is most common with motorsports or golf betting, essentially 'group betting' a winner. Below is an example of what odds looked liked for one of last year's categories.
2020 Best Picture Odds
- 1917 (-167)
- Parasite (+200)
- Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (+950)
- Joker (+1250)
- The Irishman (+6600)
- Jojo Rabbit (+9000)
- Marriage Story (+10000)
- Little Women (+15000)
- Ford v Ferrari (+25000)
If a bettor wanted to wager on Parasite to win Best Picture, then it would cost a bettor $100 to possibly win back $300 ($100 wager + $200 winnings). If a bettor wanted to wager on 1917 to win instead, then it would cost a bettor $167 to possibly win back $267 ($167 wager + $100 winnings).
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Introduction
Betting Odds On Oscars
Oscar's Grind is a popular betting system. It is generally played on even money bets with a specified winning goal. Like most betting system, it usually achieves this goal, but at the expense of a large loss when it doesn't. Like every betting system, it can not pass the test of time and will eventually show a net loss.
Unlike most betting systems, like the Martingale, Labouchere or Fibonacci, the player will press his bets after winning, as opposed to losing. It also does not escalate the bet size as fast as these other systems, making it more of a 'grind' to achieve the winning goal. This causes the chances of reaching the winning goal to be less than more aggressive systems, but also allows the player to play longer and at a smaller average bet.
Overall, Oscar's Grind will tend to win in a streaky game and do badly in a choppy game.
Rules
The following is how to play Oscar's Grind on even money bets.
- The player will define his winning goal and bankroll.
- The player shall define his 'unit size' equal to his winning goal.
- The player makes a one-unit bet.
- If the player ties, then he repeats the same bet.
- Otherwise, if the last bet results is a win and the player has achieved his winning goal, then he walks away happy.
- Otherwise, if the player wins but has not achieved his winning goal, then he increases his bet size by one unit.*/**
- Otherwise, the player keeps the bet size the same.**
- The player bets.
- Go back to rule 4, until the player either achieves his winning goal or loses his entire bankroll.
*: If such an increase in bet would cause the player to overshoot his winning goal if he wins, then drop the bet size to whatever would result in achieving exactly the winning goal the next bet.
**: If the player does not have enough money to make the next bet, then drop the bet size to whatever money the player has left.
Simulation Results
To show what to expect from using Oscar's Grind, I wrote a simulation that followed the rules above, based on various bets and games. The simulation used a Mersenne Twister random number generator. For each simulation, the winning goal was ten units. I tested the simulation on the following bankrolls: 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 units.
The first simulation is based on betting the Player bet in baccarat. The simulation size is over 37 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge on the Player bet is 1.235%.
Baccarat Simulation — Player Bet
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 90.17% | 95.65% | 97.69% | 98.77% | 99.46% |
| Average number of bets | 4.736 | 5.697 | 6.230 | 6.646 | 7.067 |
| Average units bet | 6.626 | 10.609 | 14.557 | 19.609 | 28.650 |
| Expected win per session | -0.082 | -0.131 | -0.180 | -0.242 | -0.354 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 1.234% | 1.235% | 1.236% | 1.235% | 1.235% |
The first simulation is based on betting the pass bet in craps. The simulation size is over 45 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge on the pass bet is 1.41%.
Craps Simulation — Pass Bet
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 90.14% | 95.63% | 97.67% | 98.76% | 99.45% |
| Average number of bets | 4.289 | 5.161 | 5.645 | 6.024 | 6.409 |
| Average units bet | 6.001 | 9.616 | 13.205 | 17.804 | 26.051 |
| Expected win per session | -0.085 | -0.136 | -0.187 | -0.252 | -0.368 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 1.413% | 1.414% | 1.414% | 1.414% | 1.413% |
The next simulation is based on the don't pass bet in craps. The simulation size was over 43 billion sessions. As a reminder, the house edge on the don't pass bet is 1.364%.
Craps Simulation — Don't Pass
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 90.14% | 95.64% | 97.68% | 98.76% | 99.46% |
| Average number of bets | 4.410 | 5.307 | 5.805 | 6.193 | 6.589 |
| Average units bet | 6.171 | 9.887 | 13.574 | 18.296 | 26.768 |
| Expected win per session | -0.084 | -0.135 | -0.185 | -0.250 | -0.365 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 1.364% | 1.364% | 1.364% | 1.364% | 1.364% |
The next simulation is based on any even money bet in single-zero roulette. The simulation size was over 43 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge is 1/37 = 2.703%.
Roulette Simulation — Single Zero
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 89.40% | 95.11% | 97.29% | 98.49% | 99.28% |
| Average number of bets | 4.381 | 5.327 | 5.871 | 6.314 | 6.789 |
| Average units bet | 6.156 | 10.059 | 14.074 | 19.418 | 29.545 |
| Expected win per session | -0.166 | -0.272 | -0.380 | -0.525 | -0.799 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 2.703% | 2.702% | 2.703% | 2.702% | 2.703% |
The next simulation is based on any even money bet in double-zero roulette. The simulation size was over 45 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge is 2/38 = 5.263%.
Roulette Simulation — Double Zero
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 87.81% | 93.93% | 96.39% | 97.81% | 98.81% |
| Average number of bets | 4.567 | 5.670 | 6.350 | 6.944 | 7.646 |
| Average units bet | 6.468 | 10.982 | 15.945 | 23.026 | 37.824 |
| Expected win per session | -0.340 | -0.578 | -0.839 | -1.212 | -1.991 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 5.263% | 5.264% | 5.262% | 5.264% | 5.264% |
Video
Betting Odds On Oscars Snubs
Here is my video on Oscar's Grind.
Internal Links
- The Truth about Betting Systems.
- Labouchere betting system.
- Fibonacci betting system.
- D'Alembert betting system.
- Martingale betting system.
- Keefer roulette system.
Betting Odds On Oscars
External Links
Discussion about Oscar's Grind in my forum at Wizard of Vegas.